Стоимостное инвестирование по Темплтону
Обычно сторонники стоимостного подхода отдают предпочтение какому-то одному индикатору стоимости, и основной выбор – между P/E (цена/прибыль) и P/BV (цена/чистая стоимость активов). Как я заметила, большинство все же предпочитает P/BV, объясняя это в том числе меньшей цикличностью стоимости активов по сравнению с прибылью. Темплтон – за модификацию P/E, где в знаменателе стоит прибыль через пять лет. Иными словами, он старается учитывать в оценке будущий рост. С этим проблем не вижу. Вопрос только в корректности прогнозов.
Кроме того, он сторонник применения «сотни индикаторов» завышенности/заниженности цен на фондовом рынке в целом. И здесь возникают вопросы. Он предлагает такие индикаторы как масштабы выкупа акций и сделок по слияниям и поглощениям. По его мнению, компании выкупают свои акции в периоды, когда цены на них, по их инсайдерскому мнению, занижены, и покупают другие компании по тем же причинам – наблюдают на фондовом рынке низкую капитализацию по сравнению с полной стоимостью компаний. Поэтому чем больше выкупов и поглощений, тем более занижены цены по сравнению со справедливыми.
Что касается выкупов акций, то во времена, когда Темплтон был активен (он продал свой бизнес в 1994 году), так и было. В 1970-е выкуп акций был экзотическим инструментом. Он применялся мало, потому что американское законодательство того времени позволяло трактовать выкуп как манипуляцию рынком, а это еще с 1930-х запрещенный прием. Когда в начале 1980-х законы поменяли, выкупы получили большое распространение. И сначала их действительно осуществляли исходя из добрых мотивов – заниженная цена акций или изменение структуры капитала в сторону большей доли долга для компаний со слишком маленьким долгом. Однако в 1990-е набирает обороты выкуп акций с целью поддержания их цены, при этом под выкуп могут браться кредиты и залевередженность достигать критического уровня. Сейчас все больше выкупов осуществляется исходя из не самых благородных побуждений, и такие выкупы не являются индикатором заниженности цен. Несмотря на то, что Темплтон уверял, что самая опасная фраза в финансах this time is different, в данном случае на самом деле this time is different.
В отношении слияний и поглощений то же самое. Волна слияний и поглощений может быть как признаком заниженных цен, так и признаком горячего рынка. И горячие рынки были уже при Темплтоне. Так, в 1960-е США пережили волну конгломератных слияний. Конгломераты вошли в моду и котировались очень высоко – с премией к стоимости сфокусированных компаний. Потом, как это всегда бывает, наступило разочарование и конгромераты начали котироваться со скидкой к сумме стоимостей своих активов как отдельных бизнесов.
Анализ подхода Темплтона к выявлению перспективных недооцененных акций показывает важность критического отношению к подходам даже великих инвесторов. Нельзя забывать, что в этот раз все действительно может быть по-другому. Это правило не работает, когда им вы пытаетесь обосновать слишком высокую цену акций, но оно его хорошо применять, если вы сомневаетесь в корректности того или иного индикатора заниженности цены.
Елена Чиркова, управляющая фондом GEIST SP
Last updated: 13.05.2022
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9. Data processing