Последние макроэкономические отчеты и реакция ФРС: близка ли смена курса монетарной политики?
Сложившаяся ситуация заставляет инвесторов видеть больше оснований для снижения цен активов, чем верить в сохранение какого-либо апсайда. Многие заметно сократили свои длинные позиции. Короткие позиции открывать опасно – играть против ФРС никто не посоветует. В итоге инвесторы уже который месяц остаются в выжидательной позиции с бóльшим размером денежных средств в портфелях, чем того хотелось бы.
Опубликованный на прошлой неделе протокол июльского совещания ФРС дал надежду: большинство членов комитета поддерживают целесообразность постепенного сворачивания программы выкупа активов до конца года. Возможно, что на симпозиуме в Джексон-Хоуле в конце текущей недели председатель Дж. Пауэлл привнесет ясность в этот вопрос.
Пауэлл известен своей приверженностью мягкой политике, за что не раз подвергался критике. Его срок на посту главы ФРС истекает в феврале, и сегодня, когда Белый дом изучает круг потенциальных кандидатов, прогнозы о его отставке слышны наряду с хором в его поддержку. В частности, министр финансов Джанет Йеллен, бывшая глава ФРС, высказалась за переназначение Пауэлла. Президент Байден пока не сделал своего выбора, но, по слухам, может принять решение уже к 6 сентября. Если Пауэлл сохранит за собой пост главы ФРС, то можно ожидать сохранения крайне осторожной поступательной монетарной политики в следующие четыре года – а это дает понимание возможного поведения рынков в 4-м квартале этого года и в начале 2022-го.
Ближайшие же несколько недель будут крайне насыщенными и показательными. Ранее мы уже комментировали высказывания одного из членов совета управляющих ФРС, который заявил, что рынок труда США восстанавливается очень быстро и, если рост числа рабочих мест в июле и августе будет идти темпами по 800 тысяч ежемесячно, то уже в сентябре было бы целесообразно объявить о сокращении выкупа активов. Его заявление вызвало большой резонанс, а отчет по рынку труда за июль показал опережающий рост рабочих мест в 943 тысячи, поддержав ожидания. Так вот, уже 3 сентября выйдет отчет по рынку труда за август, а 14 сентября – данные по инфляции. Собравшись на очередное совещание 22 сентября, Комитет по операциям на открытом рынке ФРС будет, таким образом, будет обладать данными, либо свидетельствующими о сохранении сильных тенденций в экономике, достаточных для того, чтобы приступить к сворачиванию программы выкупа активов, либо пока не подтверждающими этот тезис.
В пользу того, что экономика пока не настолько сильна, выступают отчеты, опубликованные на днях – неожиданное и заметное падение индекса потребительского доверия, падение индекса Empire State Manufacturing, а также опережающих индексов бизнес-активности в секторе услуг и промпроизводства. Эти отчеты наряду с угрозами дельта-штамма вируса дали инвесторам основание полагать, что сроки начала ужесточения монетарной политики могут быть перенесены, и это тут же привело к ослаблению доллара и некоторому расширению аппетита к риску на глобальных рынках. Можно допустить, что и отчеты по рынку труда за август выйдут слабее ожидающихся – просто из-за сезонного фактора. О чем можно сказать с уверенностью уже сейчас – активность рынков и их волатильность заметно возрастут уже со следующей недели.
Александр Овчинников, управляющий фондом ARGO SP
Last updated: 13.05.2022
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9. Data processing