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back 13 March’ 2020

«Покупай, когда на улицах течет кровь, даже если она твоя». Письмо инвесторам от 13 марта

Article
13 March’ 2020

Причина такого обрушения рынков кроется в их значительном росте в течение последних лет – росте, не оправданном ни скоростью роста мировой или страновой экономики, ни увеличением мирового богатства, ни даже снижением аппетитов инвесторов в связи с падением стоимости денег; рынки росли на фоне больших объемов ликвидности, которые не могли пролиферировать в реальную экономику из-за отсутствия спроса на деньги в реальном секторе (рост экономик замедлялся, а скорость движения денег росла); повинуясь обычной для современных рынков позитивной обратной связи, рост вызывал желание увеличить инвестиции, увеличение инвестиций вызывало рост.

Однако триггером для начала падения явились новости относительно глобализации эпидемии коронавируса – теперь уже очевидно самой опасной для здоровья вирусной эпидемии за последние 100 лет и несомненно самой существенной эпидемии для мировой экономики за последние столетия – в силу того, что реакция на неё со стороны ведущих государств сегодня является крайне жесткой, а мировые экономические связи – крайне плотными. Правительства многих стран заявили о средствах, выделяемых на борьбу с негативными последствиями для экономики. В начале этой недели Банк Англии снизил ставку на 50 б.п., а правительство Индонезии заявило о снижении налогов для поддержки национальных производителей. Снизив ставку в начале месяца на 50 б.п., ФРС заявила в эту среду о намерении поддержать банковскую систему и увеличить ее ликвидность, влив дополнительно $500 млрд в ближайшее время. Краткосрочные ставки межбанковского рынка США упали вдвое, а кривая ставок в долларах приобрела идеальную форму (наверное, единственный позитивный факт во всей истории последних дней). Европейские акции рухнули на 10% после того как ЕЦБ по итогам прошедшего совещания в четверг сохранил ставки без изменений, заявив лишь о расширении программы выкупа активов на €120 млрд до конца 2020 года и запуске дополнительной программы долгосрочных операций рефинансирования (LTRO). Главе ЕЦБ Кристин Лагард осталось лишь констатировать, что пересмотр стратегии ЕЦБ на данный момент откладывается.

Картину дополняет еще и ситуация на рынке энергоносителей, где цены на нефть продолжили лететь вниз после того, как соглашение между ОПЕК и Россией не состоялось и началась полноценная ценовая война. В спокойное время рынки оценили бы падение стоимости углеводородов по достоинству: такой подарок экономикам Европы и Китая (крупным импортерам нефти и газа) и США (у которых поставки сланцевой нефти захеджированы на год вперед, а остальные отрасли экономики являются крупными потребителями топлива) должен был бы вызвать рост рынков. Но в нынешней ситуации все инвесторы смотрят не на то, как дорого будет обходиться топливо экономикам, а на то, будут ли эти экономики вообще работать в ближайшее время.

Плановое совещание ФРС США состоится в следующую среду. Однако станет ли более спокойным мир после того, как ФРС снизит ставку еще на 50 пунктов или даже опустит ее до нуля? Вряд ли. Стоит повторить: вопрос уже не в том, есть ли на рынке средства, вопрос состоит в том, какая часть мировой экономики выдержит шатдаун на несколько недель или даже месяцев.

Со стороны (и из новостей) может показаться, что на рынках наступает коллапс. Однако одного взгляда на графики основных индексов достаточно, чтобы увидеть: это (пока еще) далеко не так. Падение индексов американских акций «всего лишь» возвращает их на уровни конца 2018 года (или второй половины 2017 года). S&P500 упал на 28%, но за последние 3 года он вырос на 69%. И это после роста на 125% за 7 лет! Для сравнения: в двух последних масштабных коррекциях на кризисах 2002 и 2008 годов S&P500 терял около 50%. Если бы не эпидемия (на которую теперь можно свалить все грехи) и крайне высокая скорость падения мы могли бы просто заключить, что рынки корректируются в рамках долгосрочной перекупленности.

Тем временем Китай не намерен отказываться от своих стратегических планов. Ухань, город в центре глобальной пандемии, возвращается к жизни после карантина, а Шанхай и Пекин опять начинает застилать смогом промышленных предприятий. Школы открывают двери, а рестораны наполняются людьми. КПК заявляет, что после двухмесячного перерыва жизнь вернется к нормальным условиям уже в апреле – а значит 2-ой квартал китайская экономика смогла бы проработать на полную мощность, если мир, конечно, будет в состоянии потребить те $700 млрд экспорта, которые страна готова ему предлагать ежеквартально.

С последним, однако, могут возникнуть проблемы. Вспышки эпидемии в Италии, Иране и Южной Корее были только первыми ласточками – инфекция распространяется с большой скоростью по миру и в первую очередь по Европе и США. Официальные цифры отражают, разумеется, информацию на несколько (возможно, 10) дней назад: заболевшие не сразу обращаются к врачам. Поэтому официальные цифры зарегистрированных случаев (сегодня это почти 130 000 человек во всем мире, из них более 40 000 вне Китая) существенно занижены. На карантин закрыта Италия, в Париже и Нью Йорке прекращена работа учебных заведений. По всему миру останавливается туристический бизнес (продажи AVIS упали на 40%), организаторы массовых мероприятий вынуждены возвращать деньги клиентам. Меры социальной изоляции, несомненно, сильно повлияют на весь непродуктовый ретейл – кто захочет рисковать здоровьем ради покупки очередного гаджета или предмета одежды? Уже нет сомнений, что глобальная рецессия состоялась – 1-й и 2-й кварталы 2020 года экономик всего мира будет сокращаться.

Основной проблемой мировой экономики в конечном итоге станет не пандемия – она пройдет за пару месяцев или за пару кварталов, не так важно. Большое значение будет иметь насколько жизнеспособными окажутся бизнесы по всему миру в условиях вынужденной остановки или существенного сокращения активности. Idle power cost для многих из них очень высок, в первую очередь для закредитованных бизнесов и бизнесов, которые имеют много фиксированных расходов (например, арендных). Нет сомнений, что правительства в развитых экономиках окажут максимальную поддержку бизнесу, но у любой поддержки есть границы. В любом случае это будет означать существенный рост дефолтов, масштабные реструктуризации, рост ликвидности, предоставленной системе, более низкие ставки по всему миру. В перспективе мир будет выходить из пандемии с еще большим объемом денег в обращении и низкими ставками – а значит будут созданы все условия для восстановления рынков. Когда это будет, никто не знает, но ждать этого не так долго – пандемии не длятся более года.

Что в этой связи намерен делать фонд ARGO? Сегодня облигации качественных эмитентов оказались оценены рынком несправедливо – облигации с погашением в 2021–22 гг. торгуются с доходностью 6 и даже 6,5%. Не будет сюрпризом найти суперкороткие суверенные облигации с доходностью на 150–250 б.п. выше их обычного уровня. Фонд не закрыл ни одной позиции в своем портфеле за последние несколько недель – все активы в нем качественные, состояние эмитентов, их подверженность влиянию пандемии и падению цен на биржевые товары неоднократно проверена, их кредитоспособность подтверждена. Сформированный запас ликвидности (около 20%) сохранен. Отрицательная переоценка портфеля невелика, доходность портфеля к погашению составляет около 7%. Управляющие намерены придерживаться той же аккуратной стратегии до появления первых признаков исправления ситуации с эпидемией – они могут появиться уже в ближайшие недели. Тогда главной задачей будет поиск и приобретение коротких качественных и недооцененных бумаг.

Для потенциальных инвесторов в фонд сейчас наступило отличное время: можно, приобретая акции ARGO, присоединяться к портфелю качественных бумаг по текущим ценам и успеть к моменту слома тенденции. Барон Ротшильд, говорил: «Покупай, когда на улицах течет кровь, даже если она твоя». Эпидемия в мире закончится, как она заканчивается в Китае, паника на рынках тоже закончится, а значит сейчас самое время готовиться к тому, чтобы «собирать камни».

Александр Овчинников, управляющий фондом ARGO SP
Андрей Мовчан, CEO Movchan’s Group

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          Statements on this website may contain information obtained from third parties, including ratings from rating agencies and research from research providers etc. Reproduction and distribution of third-party content in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of the related third party. Third-party content providers do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any information, including ratings or research, and are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such content. Third-party content providers give no express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Third-party content providers shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees or losses (including lost income or profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of their content, including ratings or research. Credit and/or research ratings are statements of opinions and are not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold or sell securities. They do not address the market value of securities or the suitability of securities for investment purposes and should not be relied on as investment advice.

          7. Performance

          The past is not an indication of the future performance of an investment. The value of investments may be subject to fluctuations and investors may not get back the amount invested. Changes in rates of foreign exchange may also cause the value of investments to go up or down.

          8. Links to third-party websites

          Links to third-party websites on this website are provided solely for your convenience as pointers to information on topics that may be useful to users of this website. Movchan’s Group has no control over the content on such third-party websites. Activating some links to third-party websites on this website may cause you to leave this website. No warranties or liability concerning the content of such websites are made, including assurances that it is correct, accurate, complete, true, up-to-date or fit for any particular purpose. Nor does Movchan’s Group warrant that such website or content is free from any claims of copyright or trademark or other infringement of the rights of third parties or that such site or content is free of viruses or other harmful components. No guarantee as to the authenticity of documents on the Internet is given.

          Using links to third-party websites provided on this Site is at your sole discretion and at your own risk.

          Please note that third-party websites are not subject to Movchan’s Group data protection policy and Movchan’s Group is not responsible for the policies they apply with regard to collection and treatment of your personal data. We recommend that you carefully read the terms of use and data protection policies governing the third-party website before using it in order to check how it protects your personal data and privacy.

          9. Data processing

          For information on the kind of data collected, the purpose for which it is collected, how it is processed, to whom it may be disclosed and the security measures that have been put in place to protect it, please consult the Movchan’s Group Data Privacy Policy under the following link:

          Data privacy Policy

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