Обзор макроэкономики и долговых рынков в июне-июле
В мае рынки росли, испытывая беспрецедентный уровень поддержки со стороны ФРС, в то время как корректировка ее политики в июне заставила инвесторов стать более сдержанными и перейти в режим ожидания. Стремительно увеличивая объем активов на балансе в марте и апреле– на $1,1 трлн и на $1,4 трлн соответсвенно– ФРС снизила темпы выкупа активов до $0,4 трлн в мае, доведя баланс к 10 июня до $7,17 трлн. В течение трех недель он устойчиво продолжал снижение, достигнув 1 июля $7,01 трлн. Осторожная позиция ФРС также объяснима: восстановление активности в экономике сопровождалось ускорением темпа роста денежной массы до 23,1% в мае (а по последним оценкам достигла уже 25%).
Учитывая пока кризисное состояние рынка труда в США, слабый спрос и минимальные темпы роста потребительских цен, можно констатировать, что предпринятые ФРС меры в очередной раз стали источником инфляции цен активов. Это значит, что в случае устойчивого восстановления экономики (пусть даже медленного), ФРС может продолжить снижать объем активов на балансе и достигнутый к настоящему времени уровень цен активов может оказаться не столь надежным и устойчивым.
С другой стороны, неопределенность сохраняется и вероятность второй волны остается фактором, способным замедлить сроки и темпы восстановления экономики. Внезапный рост числа заболеваний в Китае, Израиле, Европе, США дает повод усомниться в быстром V-образном восстановлении, подкрепленном налогово-бюджетными и монетарными стимулами. В этом случае ФРС возможно вновь придется увеличивать объем выкупа активов. Это уже другой сценарий, при котором ФРС, возможно, все-таки придется воспользоваться таким инструментом, как «контроль кривой» (речь идет о контроле уровня средне- и/или долгосрочных ставок на определенном уровне – инструмент, который использует Банк Японии и стал применять Банк Австралии). ФРС пока воздерживается от контроля кривой, как и от введения отрицательных ставок.
Таким образом, сложившиеся на сегодня условия предопределяют хрупкое равновесие на рынках и неуверенность инвесторов, которые предпочли в июне несколько разгрузить свои портфели и ожидать прихода «второй волны» с достаточным запасом ликвидности. На фоне сохраняющейся слабости доллара (который потерял по итогам квартала 1,7%) фондовый рынок США показал почти нулевой прирост в июне, а доходность казначейских облигаций вдоль кривой не изменилась по сравнению с уровнями на конец мая. Опасения инвесторов в отношении фиатных валют на фоне ожиданий новых налогово-бюджетных и монетарных стимулов поддерживают рост цен на золото, которые приблизились к своим восьмилетним максимумам.
Ситуация с пандемией, новые волны заражений в различных регионах мира и неясные сроки появления вакцины оставляют центральные банки и инвесторов в условиях крайней неопределенности. Начиная с того, что спреды между ценами спроса и предложения по многим активам по-прежнему широки, рыночные ожидания инвесторов крайне неустойчивы, а политика центральных банков остается ситуативной и быстро подстраиваемой. Предпочтения крупных инвесторов (пенсионные фонды и страховые компании), чувствительные к ценам облигаций UST, могут заметно сместиться в область коротких или среднесрочных ставок на фоне высокого объема предложения со стороны Казначейства США (объем заимствований порядка 3 трлн до конца 2020 г.) и характерного для любого пост-кризисного периода, наблюдаемого с 1971 г., процесса увеличения угла наклона кривой. И если сегодня под влиянием того, что ФРС в любой момент может объявить о «контроле кривой» в участке до 2-х или даже до 5-ти лет, 2у5у- спрэд остается узким (порядка 16 бп), то расхождение между кратко-среднесрочными и долгосрочными ставками продолжает расширяться (5у30у-спрэд расширился до 115-120 бп).
Александр Овчинников, управляющий фондом ARGO SP
Last updated: 13.05.2022
Movchan’s Group (“Movchan’s Group”, “we” or “us”) welcome you to our website and appreciate your interest in our products and services.
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2. Information about us
This website www.movchans.com, is owned and operated by Movchan Management Ltd., a private company of the Astana International Financial Center under the identification number 210140900043 in accordance with the Constitutional Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan “on the Astana International Financial Center”, whose registered address is AIFC 55/16 Mangilik El Ave., block C3.1, office 323, Z05T3F2, Nur-Sultan.
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We use your data to provide the best possible experience of using this website and communication with us. This includes:
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With your permission and where permitted by law, we may use your data for marketing purposes which may include contacting you by email and telephone and text message and post with information, news on our products and services. We will not, however, send you any unsolicited marketing or spam and will take all reasonable steps to ensure that we fully protect your rights and comply with Our obligations under the EU General Data Protection Regulation 2016/679 (GDPR).
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We make every effort to take appropriate technical and organizational security measures to ensure that your personal data protected against unauthorized access, misuse, loss and/or destruction.
Our employees and the service providers commissioned by us are bound by professional secrecy and must comply with all data protection provisions.
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According to applicable data protection laws and regulations, you may have the following rights:
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You also have a right of appeal (as far as this affects you) to the respective Data Protection Supervisory Authority.
As a data subject you may address any concern of yours on a matter relating to your data protection rights to the company’s Data Protection Officer below.
Data Protection Officer (DPO): Zhadra Abdullina (firstname.lastname@example.org).
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We may share your data within companies in our group.
We may sometimes contract with third parties to supply services to you on our behalf. These may include payment processing, search engine facilities, advertising and marketing. In some cases, the third parties may require access to some or all of your data. Where any of your data is required for such a purpose, we will take all reasonable steps to ensure that your data will be handled safely, securely, and in accordance with your rights, our obligations, and the obligations of the third party under the law.
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In certain circumstances we may be legally required to share certain data held by us, which may include your personal information, for example, where we are involved in legal proceedings, where we are complying with the requirements of legislation, a court order, or a governmental authority. We do not require any further consent from you in order to share your data in such circumstances and will comply as required with any legally binding request that is made of us.
The Terms are subject to change at any time without notice and access to, and use of the website may be restricted or terminated at any time. You are therefore advised to review these Terms each time you access this website.
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The information, products, data, services, tools and documents contained or described on this website are for information purposes only and constitute neither an advertisement or recommendation nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell investment instruments, to affect any transaction or to enter into any legal relations.
The financial products mentioned on this site are not suitable for all investors. Prior to making investment decisions investors should conduct a thorough investigation and obtain all necessary professional advice for all issues, including your eligibility to make such investment in terms of the applicable law.
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9. Data processing