О важных макроэкономических событиях апреля 2020-го
Итак, по итогам совещания ФРС не ожидается заметных решений – скорее всего, это плановое совещание, целью которого будет уверить всех, что регулятор все еще обладает набором инструментов для влияния на ситуацию, при этом понимая, что экономику ожидает более серьезный спад, чем в 2008–09 гг. Всем понятно, и мы об этом писали, что западные экономики вступили в борьбу с коронавирусом существенно позже Китая и первые два месяца квартала для них прошли в штатном режиме. Март все изменил, но не настолько. Ключевые опасения касаются именно 2К20, когда происходил массовый lockdown, закрытие бизнеса, городов, регионов и стран, когда авиасообщение было прервано, а спрос потребителя упал почти до нуля. Возможно, и 3К окажется негативным, однако сказать это сейчас наверняка невозможно, так как ряд стран уже заявляет о постепенном снижении карантинных мер. Поэтому, заранее опасаясь худшего периода в экономике и на рынке труда (в 2К20), глава ФРС Сент-Луиса Д. Буллард предложил просто “списать” его итоги.
Инвесторы мало чего ожидают и от совещания ЕЦБ в этот четверг. Мы знаем о сложностях внутри самого блока – программа выпуска коронабондов с солидарной ответственностью всех членов монетарного союза, предложенная южными странами блока, пока категорически не находит поддержки со стороны северных партнеров. Это очередная попытка реанимировать предложения периода кризиса 2011-21 гг., которые касались углубления интеграции и введения единой бюджетной, долговой и налоговой политики. Приняв в конце прошлого года бразды правления, президент ЕЦБ Кристин Лагард проводит сегодня большую работу в отношении предоставления странами мер бюджетной и фискальной поддержки. По прогнозам ЕЦБ экономика блока в базовом случае может сократиться в 2020 г. на 9%, а в худшем – потерять до 15%. Это заметно хуже сценария МВФ, озвученного Фондом в середине апреля. Однако возможно, что это послание ЕЦБ намеренно преувеличено с тем, чтобы привлечь максимум внимания стран к происходящему и получить от них лучшую реакцию. Тем не менее, глубокое падение опережающих индикаторов промсектора и сектора услуг стран монетарного блока по итогам апреля говорит о реалистичности взгляда ЕЦБ. Ожидается, что по итогам совещания ЕЦБ заявит о некотором увеличении объема активов. Однако его усилия в любом случае отстают от размера действий ФРС, чей баланс активов расширился до 6,6 трлн долларов по сравнению с 4,2 трлн на конец февраля. Объем активов на балансе ЕЦБ вырос за этот же период времени на 0,6 трлн евро до 5,3 трлн евро.
Последствия такой политики ФРС настораживают инвесторов, ожидающих, что в среднесрочной перспективе эта накачка ликвидности (темпы роста М2 достигли 11,4%) может привести к резкому росту инфляции. Однако и ФРС понимает это. С другой стороны, это не тема сегодняшнего дня, когда спрос упал до нуля; мы можем опасаться дефляции в ближайшие месяцы. Хотя в марте темпы роста потребительских цен уже снизились: в США до 1,5%, в Еврозоне – до 0,7, до 0,4% в Японии и до 4,3% в Китае.
В краткосрочной перспективе неопределенность «правит балом». Неопределенность в отношении того, как быстро удастся запустить малый и средний бизнес, экономику в целом, в каком состоянии она выйдет из состояния полного lockdown.Как только мы сможем ответить себе на эти вопросы, мы достаточно быстро сможем ответить и на вопрос, где новый равновесный уровень базовых процентных ставок. Вслед за этим кредитные спрэды дадут нам правильный ответ на вопрос о том, где находится справедливая оценка активов; цены активов начнут хоть что-то значить, а спрэды между ценами спроса и предложения сузятся.
Last updated: 13.05.2022
Movchan’s Group (“Movchan’s Group”, “we” or “us”) welcome you to our website and appreciate your interest in our products and services.
As of 25 May 2018, the EU General Data Protection Regulation 2016/679 (GDPR) have taken effect for the protection of natural persons against the processing of personal data and the free circulation of such data. The New General Regulation shall replace the Directive 95/46/EU which was applied via law 138(I)/2001. As of 25 May, 2018 the said law shall be considered as abolished.
Our role includes the obligation to secure that, personal data of yours and of any third parties such as employees, contractors, clients, principals and other individuals and contracting parties related to you, which has come or may come into our possession and which may also contain sensitive data, is processed in accordance with relevant Regulation and/or other laws in force.
2. Information about us
This website www.movchans.com, is owned and operated by Movchan Management Ltd., a private company of the Astana International Financial Center under the identification number 210140900043 in accordance with the Constitutional Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan “on the Astana International Financial Center”, whose registered address is AIFC 55/16 Mangilik El Ave., block C3.1, office 323, Z05T3F2, Nur-Sultan.
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- your full name;
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- contact information such as email addresses and telephone numbers;
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We use your data to provide the best possible experience of using this website and communication with us. This includes:
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- Develop new products, services, features, and functionality;
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- Analysing your use of this website and gathering feedback to enable us to continually improve this website and your user experience;
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With your permission and where permitted by law, we may use your data for marketing purposes which may include contacting you by email and telephone and text message and post with information, news on our products and services. We will not, however, send you any unsolicited marketing or spam and will take all reasonable steps to ensure that we fully protect your rights and comply with Our obligations under the EU General Data Protection Regulation 2016/679 (GDPR).
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We make every effort to take appropriate technical and organizational security measures to ensure that your personal data protected against unauthorized access, misuse, loss and/or destruction.
Our employees and the service providers commissioned by us are bound by professional secrecy and must comply with all data protection provisions.
Additionally, access to personal data is restricted to only those employees, contractors and third parties who require this access in order to assure the purpose of data processing and the provision of products and services.
Steps We take to secure and protect your data include:
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- We use Alphabet’s (Google) email services, which are highly secure.
- We follow strict internal procedures when handling any sensitive data.
Notwithstanding the security measures that we take, it is important to remember that the transmission of data via the internet may not be completely secure and that you are advised to take suitable precautions when transmitting to us data via the internet.
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According to applicable data protection laws and regulations, you may have the following rights:
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- transferred in a generally useable, machine-readable, and standardized format.
You also have a right of appeal (as far as this affects you) to the respective Data Protection Supervisory Authority.
As a data subject you may address any concern of yours on a matter relating to your data protection rights to the company’s Data Protection Officer below.
Data Protection Officer (DPO): Zhadra Abdullina (email@example.com).
10. Do we share your data?
We may share your data within companies in our group.
We may sometimes contract with third parties to supply services to you on our behalf. These may include payment processing, search engine facilities, advertising and marketing. In some cases, the third parties may require access to some or all of your data. Where any of your data is required for such a purpose, we will take all reasonable steps to ensure that your data will be handled safely, securely, and in accordance with your rights, our obligations, and the obligations of the third party under the law.
We may compile statistics about the use of Our Site including data on traffic, usage patterns, user numbers, sales and other information. All such data will be anonymised and will not include any personally identifying information. We may from time to time share such data with third parties such as prospective investors, affiliates, partners and advertisers. Data will only be shared and used within the bounds of the law.
In certain circumstances we may be legally required to share certain data held by us, which may include your personal information, for example, where we are involved in legal proceedings, where we are complying with the requirements of legislation, a court order, or a governmental authority. We do not require any further consent from you in order to share your data in such circumstances and will comply as required with any legally binding request that is made of us.
The Terms are subject to change at any time without notice and access to, and use of the website may be restricted or terminated at any time. You are therefore advised to review these Terms each time you access this website.
2. No offer, no advice
The information, products, data, services, tools and documents contained or described on this website are for information purposes only and constitute neither an advertisement or recommendation nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell investment instruments, to affect any transaction or to enter into any legal relations.
The financial products mentioned on this site are not suitable for all investors. Prior to making investment decisions investors should conduct a thorough investigation and obtain all necessary professional advice for all issues, including your eligibility to make such investment in terms of the applicable law.
Nothing on this site constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation for any specific investor. We recommend that investors independently assess, with a professional advisor, the specific financial risks as well as legal, regulatory, credit, tax and accounting consequences.
3. Local legal restrictions
The Content is not intended for use by or distribution to any individual or legal entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to the law or regulatory provisions or in which Movchan’s Group companies does not hold the necessary registration or license. Individuals or legal entities in respect of whom such prohibitions apply, whether on grounds of their nationality, their place of residence or on other grounds, must not access or use the site.
Some entities, services and products of Movchan’s Group may not be registered or licensed under legal and regulatory provisions governing financial services or products and their providers in certain countries.
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Any data, including but not limited to financial market data, quotes, notices, research or other financial information accessible through this website, have been obtained from carefully selected sources believed to be reliable. All such information is provided “as is” to the user without express or implied warranties of any kind, including warranties of quality, originality, non-infringement of intellectual property or fitness for any particular purpose.
The information and opinions in the website are descriptive of Movchan’s Group as a whole and the products and services described may not be available to or suitable for all investors. The fact that a user accesses the Site does not make him a client of Movchan’s Group.
Any expressions of opinion, estimates and projections on the website are those of the authors at the date of writing. They do not necessarily reflect the view of Movchan’s Group and are subject to change at any time without prior warning. Movchan’s Group and its contractual partners may discontinue, or make changes in, the information, data and documents, and the products or services described herein, at any time without prior notice. Any information marked with a date is published as of this date only and no obligation or responsibility is undertaken to update or amend any such information.
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Links to third-party websites on this website are provided solely for your convenience as pointers to information on topics that may be useful to users of this website. Movchan’s Group has no control over the content on such third-party websites. Activating some links to third-party websites on this website may cause you to leave this website. No warranties or liability concerning the content of such websites are made, including assurances that it is correct, accurate, complete, true, up-to-date or fit for any particular purpose. Nor does Movchan’s Group warrant that such website or content is free from any claims of copyright or trademark or other infringement of the rights of third parties or that such site or content is free of viruses or other harmful components. No guarantee as to the authenticity of documents on the Internet is given.
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9. Data processing