Как мы определяем «плохие инвестиции»: кейс фонда Credit Suisse Supply Chain
Фонд занимался факторинговыми сделками на территории Европы. Сделки предоставляла компания Greensill, уважаемая с виду: в советниках значится сам Джеймс Камерон. Соотношение доходности и ликвидности было превосходным: историческая доходность составляла около 5,7% в долларах, ликвидность у них недельная, а сектор считается низкорисковым.
На прошлой неделе фонд рухнул. Обнаружилось мошенничество со стороны Greensill, которая выдала много кредитов связанным сторонам и даже несуществующим компаниям (когда это обнаружилось, Greensill заявил о компьютерной ошибке). Немецкий регулятор, которому она подчиняется, начал расследование, Credit Suisse приостановил выход инвесторов из фонда, обозначив причиной невозможность подсчета чистой стоимости активов. Восьмого марта Greensill подал на банкротство (юрисдикция – Великобритания), что означает защиту от кредиторов, которые не смогут требовать свои деньги до окончания процедуры. Это означает, что деньги инвесторов в фонде Credit Suisse будут заморожены на долгое время (это зависит от того, шел ли процессинг сделок, в которых участвовал швейцарский фонд, через Greensill или осуществлялся напрямую).
Мы смотрели на этот фонд в январе и могли бы инвестировать с 1 февраля, однако члены инвесткомитета единогласно проголосовали против. Смущало следующее: 8,3% активов фонда находилось в денежных средствах, 33,5% — в суверенных облигациях, 5,2% — в облигационных фондах. Все вместе — это 47% или почти половина фонда. Был сделан вывод, что инвестиционных идей не хватает и хорошей доходности в будущем взяться неоткуда.
Если бы на ранней стадии проверки нас ничего не смутило, то мы запросили бы данные по текущему портфелю и исторические данные по дефолтам. Скорее всего, мы увидели бы там высокий уровень дефолтов в 2020 году (о них пишут СМИ) и все равно не вложили бы. Вероятно, мы бы сразу не связали ли бы это с мошенничеством, ведь честное банкротство в 2020 году смотрится весьма правдоподобно.
Еще один фактор, который смог бы нас остановить на следующем уровне проверки — это недавняя сделка по привлечению инвестиций в Greensill со стороны Softbank Vision Fund двумя траншами в мае и октябре 2019 года на общую сумму 1,5 млрд долл. Softbank в акционерах компании — это, как минимум, красный флаг. Он является инвестором в Wirecard, главу которого арестовали за подделку отчетности, а кроме того, в Uber, WeWork и OneWeb. Это компании не просто с плохими операционными результатами, а либо банкроты, как OneWeb, либо с явным мошенничеством или на грани его. Из четырех сделок три скандальные, с негативным имиджем.
Так в процессе стандартного (и очень тщательного) due diligence на самых ранних этапах мы определили инвестицию, как неудачную, спасли деньги инвесторов и выучили урок: громкое имя в названии фонда — не страховка, буквально все нужно проверять.
Елена Чиркова, управляющая фондом GEIST SP
Last updated: 13.05.2022
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