Бумаги с рейтингом «BB» принесут инвесторам умеренный доход
Вчера прошло одно из двух ключевых совещаний сентября — Европейского ЦБ. Вместо большой «базуки» Банк представил рынку игрушечный водяной пистолетик. Как мы и ожидали, негативное отношение к серьезным шагам по стимулированию экономики со стороны глав ЦБ ключевых стран в еврозоне (Германии, Франции, Австрии, Нидерландов, Дании, Эстонии) сыграло свою роль в принятии ограниченного по объему мер решения. Однако и мы сомневались в большой результативности и необходимости введения обширных мер экономического стимулирования. Возобновление QE или снижение депозитных ставок вряд ли даст серьезный запал экономике региона. За последние 15 лет экономика накопила множество проблем, но пока не пришла к созданию нового мощного «двигателя». Монетарные стимулы не дадут большого эффекта, необходимы как минимум фискальные стимулы. Возможно, что постепенная смена политиков обновит кровь и ускорит движение вперед.
Следующий шаг. Рынки ожидают, что ФРС еще два раза снизит ставку до конца года, а длинные ставки в реальном выражении снижаются до нуля (в августе ставки уже опускались в негативную область впервые с июня 2018 г.). Возможно. Однако в реальности все может ограничиться лишь одним шагом вниз на 25 б.п. — в следующую среду. Особенно в том случае, если далее президент Трамп будет удовлетворен реально достижимыми, а не мнимыми заоблачными результатами на переговорах с Китаем, который вряд ли ему выпишет максимальный чек. Это означает, что если ФРС снижает ставку до 1,75%, то доходность 10Y UST будет (в условиях продуктивных переговоров с Китаем и отсутствия других экзальтаций и рисков, например, в виде Brexit без сделки) колебаться где-то около 1,7–1,8%.
В свою очередь, для активов на глобальных рынках это означает следующее:
Во-первых, высококачественные и низкодоходные бумаги с рейтингом «А» ~ «BBB» уже не будут привлекательны как защитные активы в период обострения геополитических и экономических рисков – их спреды уже достигли минимальных, околонулевых или вовсе отрицательных уровней и со второй половины августа начали снижаться.
Второе. Учитывая тот факт, что бумаги с умеренным качеством (в категории «ВВ») уже достигли своих минимальных спредов к базовым активам, а доходность UST выросла за первые 10 дней сентября на 40 б.п. (с 1,427 до 1,83%) и вряд ли вновь уйдет существенно ниже (если только не очередной виток эскалации на переговорах с Китаем или non-deal Brexit), то здесь доход может быть умеренным, но не негативным.
Скорее всего, инвесторам на свой страх и риск останется «обгладывать» низкокачественные бумаги категории «В» и ниже. И тут уже недолго остается до выборов в Аргентине, которые состоятся 27 октября. Если случится чудо и М. Макри выиграет их, представьте, какой будет взрыв спроса на аргентинские бумаги и прочие активы с рейтингом «В». Можно предположить, что будет расширенный спрос и на облигации Монголии, за которой стоит МВФ и которая исправно соблюдает пункты договора, и на бумаги Грузии, Армении, Молдавии, Латвии, Турции.
Если же этого не произойдет, то спрос на бумаги в Латиноамериканском регионе заметно снизится, перейдя, возможно, на бумаги Индонезии, Сингапура и Австралии, где еще сохраняется хорошее качество и позитивная реальная доходность. При этом я по-прежнему не исключаю, что бумаги Монголии (опять же ввиду программы с МВФ и, вообще, хорошего поведения эмитента), а также ряд бумаг эмитентов Ближнего Востока и юга Европы будут пользоваться спросом.
Александр Овчинников, управляющий фондом ARGO SP
Last updated: 13.05.2022
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