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back 19 April’ 2019

Андрей Мовчан: миф о «ремонетаризации золота»

Article
19 April’ 2019

 

Я сперва смотрел на спрашивающих недоуменно, но, как известно, если тебе скажут, что ты лошадь, один раз — забей, если скажут два — дай в морду, но если скажут три — иди в стойло. Поэтому я стал искать причину и, кажется, нашел.

Причина в статье на zerohedge.com какого-то Брендона Вайта, которую, видимо, прочел какой-то Александр Халдей, которого радостно опубликовал не кто иной, как бредящий наяву шаман консервативных революционеров Александр Дугин на своей геополитике.ру. Тем, кто прочел статью на геополитике — стыдно, товарищи, читать туалетный листок. Тем, кто прочел на зерохедже — отныне знайте, что и в приличных местах не всегда пишут правду.

Что написано на зерохедже? Согласно «Базелю 2» (правила учета и определения достаточности капитала для международных стандартов IFRS, объединяющие 28 стран), золото в активах банков учитывалось как актив третьей категории и требовало резервирования 50% стоимости. «Базель 3» ликвидирует третью категорию и переводит золото в разряд первой категории, резервов больше не надо. Это значит, что банки, для того чтобы держать свои нормативы по капитализации (а они растут с переходом на «Базель 3»), будут покупать больше золота.

Что же на самом деле происходит? А вот что: во-первых, мы говорим только о физическом золоте и обязательствах о его поставке, непокрытые деривативы не в счет.

Во-вторых: в рамках «Базеля 2» золото как актив было оценено очень широко: каждая страна на своем национальном уровне должна была определить, какой резерв и какой haircut к ликвидности (определение капитала и определение ликвидности — разные вещи) выставить золоту, в диапазоне от 50% до нуля.

При этом золото считалось большинством стран активом надежным и ликвидным; США сразу объявили, что у них haircut — ноль и резерв по золоту — тоже ноль. Китай даже ничего не объявлял, ему «Базель» не указ, у него золото всегда считалось абсолютно ликвидным и абсолютно надежным. Уже в 2016 году золото было признано абсолютно ликвидным, абсолютно надежным и совершенно халяльным для shariah finance — это рынок в почти 2 трлн долларов годового оборота. Индия всегда рассматривала золото как 100%-й надежный актив. Рынок стран, где резерв под золото был нулевым, многократно превышал размеры рынка тех немногих стран, где он был больше нуля.

Стандарты «Базеля 3», известные с 2014 года, которые частично введены в 2018 году, а полностью будут введены в 2020-м, поступили с золотом достаточно оригинально. С одной стороны, изначально эти стандарты сохранили только 2 уровня риска по активам. С другой стороны, они же установили повышенный haircut, то есть потребовали от торгующих золотом банков увеличить маржинальные депозиты, служащие для покрытия потенциальных убытков от сделок с золотом. Европейские банки обалдели от такого нововведения и стали лоббировать отмену увеличения haircut — для них стоимость торговли золотом вырастала в 3 раза; однако пока изменений не произошло.

Так что в сухом остатке мы имеем сразу несколько больших процессов, которые положительно влияли на спрос на золото: рост резервов Китая и Индии, включение золота в круг инструментов исламских финансов, все более широкий отказ от резервирования золотых активов (с 2018 года Канада присоединилась к «клубу нулевых резервов»), последовательные действия многих суверенных фондов и ЦБ по наращиванию доли золота в своих авуарах (что естественно — на фоне беспрецедентного роста стоимости фондовых активов ЦБ старались хеджироваться) и пр. Параллельно правила торговли золотом для банков в Европе усложнились, промышленный спрос стагнировал, а предложение лома росло — все это уравновесило рыночные силы. Все эти и другие нововведения известны много лет; на них рынки давно отреагировали; все уже в цене. С середины 2013 года цена на золото стоит на месте, в точности повторяя паттерн тридцатилетней давности — тогда после спайка в конце 70-х золото надолго замерло у отметки 400 долларов за унцию, чтобы в конце концов провалиться еще ниже. Кстати, 400 долларов за унцию тогда — это в точности 1250–1300 долларов за унцию сегодня с учетом инфляции: золото за 30 лет не подорожало.

В общем, золото, конечно, может подорожать, как любой актив. Но будет это (если будет) не из-за «Базеля 3». Можете расслабиться и перестать читать те издания, которые засоряют ваши головы выражениями «ремонетаризация золота», «Базель» приготовил замену доллару» и пр.

Андрей Мовчан, CEO Movchan’s Group

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