Акции Alibaba вновь падают: чем это можно объяснить?
Запрет IPO Ant Group, временное исчезновение Джека Ма, расследование властей Китая в отношении монопольной позиции компании и назначенный штраф уже нашли отражение в ценах акций компании. Коррекция акций технологического сектора США пока остановилась, но не падение акций Alibaba.
При текущей цене компания торгуется по показателю цена к прибыли (P/E), равному 24, что значительно ниже средних значений P/E S&P 500 (29,5), Nasdaq Composite (87,7), MSCI China Information Technology Index (32,7) или американского Amazon (60,2). Компания кажется сильно недооцененной относительно рынков и аналогов, особенно с учетом очень высокого прироста выручки, составившего в среднем 46% в год за последнее пять лет. Однако этих факторов явно недостаточно, чтобы убедить инвесторов в недооцененности компании.
В отличие от предыдущих коррекций, сегодняшнее падение, на наш взгляд, связано не с внешними факторами или единоразовым отрицательным влиянием штрафа на прибыль. Недовольство инвесторов, скорее всего, является следствием ухудшения показателей прибыльности основного бизнеса компании, генерирующего около 87% ее выручки и 159% операционной прибыли (другие сегменты убыточны). Даже без учета влияния штрафа в 18 млрд юаней (около 2,8 млрд долл. США), операционная маржинальность по итогам года снизилась с 17,9% до 14%, продолжив тренд, наблюдающийся с 2016 года, когда маржинальность превышала 32%.
Быстро растущие компании могут столкнуться с проблемой падающей маржинальности по разным причинам, как положительным, так и отрицательным.
Маржинальность компаний, активно развивающих новые направления бизнеса, может оказаться под давлением из-за убыточности новых сегментов на стадии роста. Когда выручка компании стремительно растет за счет убыточных или низкомаржинальных сегментов, общая маржинальность может падать из-за увеличения их вклада в совокупную выручку.
Менее обнадёживающим является сокращение прибыльности компании вследствие падения маржинальности основного бизнеса. Именно эта проблема становится все более отчетливой в финансовых показателях Alibaba. Сокращение операционной маржинальности до 14% вызвано не отрицательным вкладом сегмента облачных решений, который еще не вышел на целевую рентабельность, а падением маржинальности интернет-торговли. Вклад сегмента в общее сокращение маржинальности составил 5 п.п. по итогам финансового года, а прочие сегменты, наоборот, способствовали сокращению падения операционной маржи.
На наш взгляд, падение цены ADR компании до 206 долл. США вызвано, в первую очередь, ухудшением ожиданий относительно маржинальности бизнеса компании, добавившихся к уже ожидаемому сокращению темпов роста выручки на фоне глубокого проникновения услуг компании среди населения Китая. По нашим оценкам текущая стоимость акций близка к справедливой (на открытии рынка в США цена падает с 210 к 206 долл. за акцию), и основана на предпосылках о сокращении темпов роста выручки до 15% через пять лет и до 4% через 10 лет, а также предполагает сохранение операционной маржи на уровне текущих 14%. При реализации таких ожиданий, являющихся, на наш взгляд, базовым сценарием развития компании, фундаментально обоснованная стоимость акций оценивается в пределах 205–210 долл. США, а инвесторы могут рассчитывать на долгосрочную доходность вложений в 9,5% годовых.
Еуджениу Кирэу, ведущий аналитик Movchan’s Group
Last updated: 13.05.2022
Movchan’s Group (“Movchan’s Group”, “we” or “us”) welcome you to our website and appreciate your interest in our products and services.
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This website www.movchans.com, is owned and operated by Movchan Management Ltd., a private company of the Astana International Financial Center under the identification number 210140900043 in accordance with the Constitutional Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan “on the Astana International Financial Center”, whose registered address is AIFC 55/16 Mangilik El Ave., block C3.1, office 323, Z05T3F2, Nur-Sultan.
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You also have a right of appeal (as far as this affects you) to the respective Data Protection Supervisory Authority.
As a data subject you may address any concern of yours on a matter relating to your data protection rights to the company’s Data Protection Officer below.
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We may share your data within companies in our group.
We may sometimes contract with third parties to supply services to you on our behalf. These may include payment processing, search engine facilities, advertising and marketing. In some cases, the third parties may require access to some or all of your data. Where any of your data is required for such a purpose, we will take all reasonable steps to ensure that your data will be handled safely, securely, and in accordance with your rights, our obligations, and the obligations of the third party under the law.
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9. Data processing