6 уроков частным инвесторам от Андрея Мовчана. Урок шестой. Товарные рынки и валюты
Все знают, что рынок непредсказуем, но часто это не учитывают. Особенно когда речь идет о золоте — золото ведь товар не простой, оно всегда в цене.
На самом деле, не всегда. Золото было очень дешевым 25 лет назад. А 10 лет назад — очень дорогим, и множество горе-инвесторов писали, что оно подорожает еще в 100 раз. А оно подешевело и унесло с собой треть стоимости портфелей многих «консервативных» инвесторов.
Хочется в тысячный раз повторить: биржевые товары имеют очень высокую волатильность цены относительно изменений макропараметров. Более того — они чувствительны к макропараметрам, которые либо непредсказуемы, либо ненаблюдаемы для инвесторов. Я часто хвалюсь, что и падение золота, и падение нефти предсказал заблаговременно и публично. И это правда. Вот только я никогда не говорил, когда это случится. Действительно, биржевые товары, в реальных ценах, относительно друг друга пляшут более или менее размеренный вальс, и если нефть уж очень выросла в цене относительно золота или наоборот, то тренд рано или поздно развернется. Но пока это произойдет, вы успеете много потерять, разувериться и закрыть позицию.
И еще одно: золото вас ни от чего не хеджирует. Да, в прошлый кризис оно росло. Почему? Потому что центральные банки его скупали, а развивающиеся страны быстро увеличивали доходы населения, которое быстро увеличивало спрос на ювелирные товары. А что будет в следующий кризис? Возможно, центральные банки начнут продавать золото, чтобы поддержать ликвидность? И что тогда будет с его ценой?
Товарные рынки непредсказуемы. Зарабатывать на них крайне сложно даже для профессиональных инвесторов с собственным штатом аналитиков. Не профессиональным инвесторам лучше избегать этого класса активов.
И немного о валютах. Валюта — это не средство инвестирования.Движения валют непредсказуемы в краткосрочной перспективе, а в долгосрочной они подчиняются уравнению Фридмана, связывающему инфляции и курсы. Но история нас ничему не учит, просто потому что будущее не обязано быть похожим на историю. Так что не стоит вкладываться в валюты, даже если кажется, что это выгодно.
Смежный вопрос, который нам регулярно задают: в какой валюте хранить и измерять свой капитал? Правильный ответ звучит так: в валюте, чья базовая ставка не слишком высока и не слишком низка, но выше, чем базовые ставки по сравнимым по надежности валютам. Гарантирует ли это доход от валютной переоценки? Нет, не гарантирует. Зато гарантирует отсутствие большой волатильности и скорее всего будет давать в долгосрочной перспективе прирост стоимости по отношению к другим валютам. Что это за валюта на сегодня? Доллар США. Форвард евро к доллару дает дополнительные 3 процента годовых — редкое явление. Как долго этот ответ будет верным? Сложно сказать. Пока Европа не вылезет из стагнации и не решится поднимать ставки, скорее всего, преимущество доллара будет сохраняться. В то же время про доллар мы уже все знаем: еще одно-два повышения ставки в 2019 году и, скорее всего, ничего — в 2020-м. Про евро мы думаем, что повышений не будет, — но если они начнутся, курс евро должен пойти вверх. Опять же — надо следить за рынком.
Главный вывод из наших уроков:
Даже если вы сами управляете портфелем, даже если вы полностью доверяете финансовому консультанту в вашем банке или приятелю-трейдеру, не ленитесь время от времени получать стороннее мнение. Это может сэкономить вам много денег.
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Иллюстрация: Рита Морозова
Last updated: 13.05.2022
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