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back 18 April’ 2019

6 уроков частным инвесторам от Андрея Мовчана. Урок второй. Облигации

Article
18 April’ 2019

Облигации — консервативный инструмент инвестирования. Как правило. Брокеры, частные банкиры и управляющие обожают это правило нарушать, потому что рискуют они чужими деньгами, и знаний у них иногда не так много, а имеющиеся почерпнуты из популярных, формальных и устаревших книжек. Чтобы, как многие приходящие к нам клиенты, не удивляться, видя в своем портфеле облигаций, созданном уважаемым частным банком, минус 25 процентов, надо помнить следующие правила:

  1. Срок до погашения: чем он длиннее, тем выше волатильность облигации. Чем выше волатильность, тем сильнее может упасть стоимость вашего портфеля, если меняется рыночная конъюнктура. И наоборот: чем короче срок до погашения, тем стабильней ведет себя бумага. Мы, будучи консервативными инвесторами, желающими по ночам спать крепко, предпочитаем сегодня, в период роста ставок на рынке, облигации со сроком до погашения не больше двух-трех лет. Во многом благодаря короткой дюрации мы за 15 лет в нашей флагманской инвестиционной стратегии имели всего лишь один отрицательный год — печально известный 2008-й. И даже тогда, на фоне всеобщего мирового кризиса и летящих в бездну рынков, наш минус был всего лишь 5,5 процента. По той же причине наш любимый фонд ARGO, инвестирующий исключительно в короткие облигации, сумел в прошлом году показать положительный результат, несмотря на отрицательную динамику рынка облигаций в целом.
  2. Облигации могут объявлять дефолт. И, что еще хуже, могут создавать у рынка впечатление, что они объявят дефолт. И естественно, чем длиннее дюрация, тем выше риск дефолта. Купили двухлетнюю облигацию хорошего эмитента — и, скорее всего, всё будет хорошо. Купили десятилетку — и никто не знает, чем это закончится. При этом через три года после покупки какой-нибудь Moody’s (международное рейтинговое агентство) снизит рейтинг бумаги на единицу, рынок потребует от нее большей доходности, доходность вырастет на процент, и в итоге рыночная стоимость вашей облигации упадет на 7 процентов. Да и Moody’s даже не надо. Инфляция подрастет, ставки подрастут — вот вам и рост доходности, и, как результат, снижение рыночной стоимости облигации. Конечно, можно держать бумагу до погашения. Но тогда (а) у вас на руках неликвид, вы сами так решили; (б) по дороге ставки вырастут (или инфляция вырастет, или качество эмитента снизится) и цена бумаги просядет (да и весь рынок просядет) — и что толку с того, что вы получали по этой бумаге на 2–3 процента больше, чем по коротким, если вы могли бы купить ее же на 10–12 процентов дешевле через три-четыре года?
  3. Облигации сильно подвержены макроэкономическим изменениям в стране эмитента. Соответственно, там, где макроизменения случаются чаще, облигации более волатильны. Аргентина ли, Турция ли, Россия ли — макропроблемы всегда начинаются и формируются как снежный ком, летящий с горы. На фоне макропроблем будут падать все облигации, и плохие, и хорошие. И отследить признаки надвигающегося ненастья способны, как правило, только профессиональные инвесторы. Для обычного инвестора ситуация становится очевидной, когда о ней уже трубят во всех газетах, и плохие новости давно в цене.
  4. Когда возникают проблемы на рынке и облигации снижаются в цене, кажется, что самое время их покупать. Попробуйте — для непрофессионала это окажется не так уж просто. На практике для вас цена продажи падает гораздо сильнее, чем цена покупки. Спред разъезжается порою до 10 процентов с обычных 0,5–1 процента.  И если вы захотите купить, цена, которую вам предложит банк или брокер, вас не впечатлит. А вот для профессиональных участников, тех же фондов, гораздо проще будет в такой ситуации купить бумагу с дисконтом. Потому что они крупные, опытные, находятся в привилегированном положении у облигационных брокеров и могут напрямую выставлять заявки на рынок по интересующей их цене. Это одна из причин, почему инвестировать в облигации через фонды зачастую выгоднее, чем напрямую.
  5. Облигации, даже короткие, иногда уходят в дефолт на самом деле. Особенно это «любят» делать бумаги из нижней части рейтинговой шкалы. Поэтому если вы покупаете бумаги с рейтингом ССС, не надо удивляться, что они могут и не вернуть вам деньги и что индекс бумаг с рейтингом ССС крайне волатилен. Бывают дефолты и в В-группе, и даже в А-группе. Выход — следить за эмитентами ежедневно и очень внимательно, а на это нужны время и навыки. Очень часто мы видим, как клиентам продается идея «хорошая бумага, но сильно упала в цене, берите». Сомнительное предложение: с чего бы хорошая бумага упала в цене?
  6. Другая часто продаваемая идея — «бумага формально рискованная (debt/ebitda = 10), но все будет хорошо, у них классный бизнес». Десять раз будет — и вы заработаете на 5 процентов годовых больше, чем в надежной бумаге. А в одиннадцатый раз не будет, и вы получите минус 65 процентов. По итогу — минус 30 процентов. Оно вам надо?
  7. Банковские субординированные облигации и облигации CoCo (Contingent Convertible Bonds) дают повышенную доходность. Но не стоит соблазняться, если только вы не настоящий ковбой. При возникновении финансовых проблем у банка владельцы субординированных облигаций получают выплаты практически в последнюю очередь. Например, при банкротстве банка средства выплачиваются сначала вкладчикам, потом держателям обычных облигаций, и только потом дело доходит до субордов. Получается, что шансов на их погашение у инвесторов практически нет. А за легкомысленной аббревиатурой СоСо скрывается определение «конвертируемые в особом случае». Если резервный капитал банка-эмитента падает ниже определенного уровня, облигации CoCo превращаются в акции.
  8. Зоны риска — это не там, где все плохо. Зоны риска — это там, где все хорошо, но может стать плохо в любой момент. Облигации «Агрокора», рублевые облигации в начале 2018 года, да и облигации «Русала» отлично показали, что такое зона риска. Остерегайтесь зон риска.

А еще остерегайтесь неквалифицированных или недобросовестных консультантов, формирующих для вас портфели облигаций. Как правило, ошибки в формировании портфеля вызваны сильным желанием консультанта привлечь нового клиента или порадовать старого высокой доходностью предлагаемого бонда или портфеля бондов. И зачастую это происходит в ущерб другим важным факторам.

Вот проблемы, которые нам чаще всего попадаются при анализе клиентских портфелей:

  1. Неправильно подобранная дюрация. Зачастую консультант не уточняет, когда клиенту может понадобиться вложенная сумма. И не объясняет, что если дюрация бонда или портфеля будет больше, чем горизонт инвестирования, или покупка происходит выше номинала, то при продаже доходность инвестиции может быть ниже, чем доходность к погашению, на которую ориентировались при покупке. Возможен даже убыток, если бонд будет торговаться ниже цены покупки.
  2. Неправильно подобранная валюта бонда. Консультант не уточняет, в какой валюте клиент предпочитает держать свои средства и в какой валюте он планирует тратить купонный доход, и покупает клиенту облигации не в той валюте, например, в долларах вместо евро. И клиент, сам того не зная, несет валютный риск и дополнительные расходы по конвертации.
  3. Покупка субординированного долга и банковских CoCoклиенту, который не понимает или не информирован о специфических рисках данных инструментов, либо риск-профиль этого клиента не предполагает покупки младшего долга.
  4. Неуместное или неграмотное использование «плеча».Консультанты часто, для увеличения доходности, покупают клиентам облигации «с плечом», неправильно оценивая вероятность маржин-колла или не заостряя внимание клиента на процедуре его исполнения. В итоге происходят ситуации, как в конце 2014 года, когда обвал на рынке бондов вызвал лавину маржин-коллов. И те клиенты, которые не смогли вовремя завести деньги на свои счета, были принудительно закрыты и понесли существенные убытки, которых явно не ожидали, когда им продавались эти бонды.

Если вы доверяете кому-то выбор облигаций — убедитесь, что этот человек или компания обладает достаточной экспертизой, а не только желанием на вас заработать. Если сами выбираете облигацию — убедитесь в том, что эмитент захочет и сможет ее гасить. И последнее: в любом случае диверсифицируйтесь. Мы в нашем фонде, например, не вкладываем больше 5 процентов портфеля в одну облигацию, больше 10 процентов — в одну страну, больше 10 процентов — в одну отрасль. В итоге имеем в портфеле порядка 30 облигаций и чувствуем себя вполне комфортно. Но это мы, консервативные инвесторы.

В следующей части — о любимом продукте финансовых консультантов — структурных нотах. А любимый он, потому что самый маржинальный.

Оригинал статьи был опубликован на Сноб

Иллюстрация: Рита Морозова

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          TO THE FULL EXTENT PERMITTED BY CURRENT LAWS AND/OR REGULATIONS, Movchan’s Group SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY (1) LOSS OF PROFITS OR REVENUE OR SAVINGS OR OTHER ECONOMIC LOSS, (2) LOSS OF BUSINESS OR GOODWILL, (3) LOSS OF OR DAMAGE TO DATA, (4) INCIDENTAL OR SPECIAL LOSS, (5) WASTED OR LOST MANAGEMENT TIME, OR (6) INDIRECT OR CONSEQUENTIAL LOSS ARISING FROM USE OF OR ACCESS TO THE SITE, EVEN IF ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SUCH LOSS OR DAMAGE OR IF SUCH LOSS OR DAMAGE WAS FORESEEABLE.

          6. Third-party content

          Statements on this website may contain information obtained from third parties, including ratings from rating agencies and research from research providers etc. Reproduction and distribution of third-party content in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of the related third party. Third-party content providers do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any information, including ratings or research, and are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, or for the results obtained from the use of such content. Third-party content providers give no express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. Third-party content providers shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees or losses (including lost income or profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of their content, including ratings or research. Credit and/or research ratings are statements of opinions and are not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold or sell securities. They do not address the market value of securities or the suitability of securities for investment purposes and should not be relied on as investment advice.

          7. Performance

          The past is not an indication of the future performance of an investment. The value of investments may be subject to fluctuations and investors may not get back the amount invested. Changes in rates of foreign exchange may also cause the value of investments to go up or down.

          8. Links to third-party websites

          Links to third-party websites on this website are provided solely for your convenience as pointers to information on topics that may be useful to users of this website. Movchan’s Group has no control over the content on such third-party websites. Activating some links to third-party websites on this website may cause you to leave this website. No warranties or liability concerning the content of such websites are made, including assurances that it is correct, accurate, complete, true, up-to-date or fit for any particular purpose. Nor does Movchan’s Group warrant that such website or content is free from any claims of copyright or trademark or other infringement of the rights of third parties or that such site or content is free of viruses or other harmful components. No guarantee as to the authenticity of documents on the Internet is given.

          Using links to third-party websites provided on this Site is at your sole discretion and at your own risk.

          Please note that third-party websites are not subject to Movchan’s Group data protection policy and Movchan’s Group is not responsible for the policies they apply with regard to collection and treatment of your personal data. We recommend that you carefully read the terms of use and data protection policies governing the third-party website before using it in order to check how it protects your personal data and privacy.

          9. Data processing

          For information on the kind of data collected, the purpose for which it is collected, how it is processed, to whom it may be disclosed and the security measures that have been put in place to protect it, please consult the Movchan’s Group Data Privacy Policy under the following link:

          Data privacy Policy

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