Трамп vs Байден: сценарии влияния итогов выборов в США на рынки
Тактически подобная позиция выглядит вполне правильно. Стратегически инвесторы должны помнить о возможном новом пакете помощи домохозяйствам и бизнесу со стороны Сената США, а также неуклонной позиции монетарных властей США, еврозоны и других стран – поддержание нулевых ставок и обеспечение максимально комфортной ликвидности для финансовых рынков.
Ранее инвесторы опасались, что в случае победы демократов на выборах 3 ноября Джо Байден может инициировать резкий разворот в налоговой политике, и перспективы тех, кто инвестирует сегодня в акции на 2021-22 гг., должны быть существенно пересмотрены. Однако сегодня все больше крепнет мнение о том, что в столь трудный час, когда компаниям требуется финансовая и фискальная поддержка, в том числе для обеспечения экономического роста, никто не будет предпринимать резких необдуманных действий.
Учитывая возможный сценарий победы демократов, из негативных сценариев можно предположить пока лишь дальнейшее расширение дефицита бюджета и рост долга при крайне мягкой монетарной политике. В случае дальнейшего развития этого сценария можно ожидать дальнейшего ослабления курса доллара и, возможно, увеличения угла наклона кривой казначейских обязательств, что происходит уже сейчас (мы отмечали необратимость реализации подобного сценария еще в начале лета, проводя параллели с предыдущими кризисами, политикой властей и политикой казначейства в эти периоды). Сегодня это означает лишь то, что спред между длинными и короткими ставками будет расширяться, а в случае победы демократов этот процесс, возможно, ускорится.
Чего можно ожидать в случае победы Д. Трампа на выборах? Очевидно, что от ослабления доллара в среднесрочной перспективе мы никуда не уйдем, но в краткосрочной перспективе можно будет ожидать его резкого укрепления, снижения доходности казначейских бумаг и роста волатильности рынков. Но это в краткосрочной перспективе. Далее все будет зависеть от позиции прежней администрации в отношении Китая и обострения торговой войны. Стоит заметить, что, несмотря на торговые войны, объем товарооборота в мире никуда не рухнул. Отличный индикатор этого – Baltic Dry Index – продолжает попытки восстановления, показав заметный рост в сентябре 2019 г., и на 22 октября 2020 также стремясь к своему среднеисторическому уровню.
Теперь на тему влияния выборов на проблемы развивающихся рынков. Вряд ли процесс здесь претерпит заметные изменения: согласно исторической статистике, в следующие один-два года после мировых кризисов следуют афтершоки, выражающиеся в росте корпоративных дефолтов, бюджетных (и долговых) и валютных кризисах в странах с развивающейся экономикой. Пока не вполне понятно, почему и как победа демократов или республиканцев в США может изменить эту картину (очевидно, что присутствие или отсутствие прямых дотаций в виде поддержки стран сценарий не изменит). Можно, конечно, говорить, что число нападок на ФРС со стороны президента в случае победы Байдена заметно сократится. Однако и доверие инвесторов к доллару и политике ФРС сегодня сохраняется именно на непреложном факте ее независимости. Кстати сказать, последнее запланированное совещание в 2020 г. ФРС проведет сразу после голосования – 5 ноября. Возможно, членам ФРС будет что сказать в этот раз.
В том же случае если Трамп сохраняет свое руководство из Овального кабинета, рынки, скорее всего, уже начнут строить свои проекции на период после 2024 г., принимая, естественно, во внимание действия президента сегодня. Но президента, уходящего в любом случае, независимо от того, хорошо это будет или плохо.
Александр Овчинников, управляющий фондом ARGO SP
Last updated: 13.05.2022
Movchan’s Group (“Movchan’s Group”, “we” or “us”) welcome you to our website and appreciate your interest in our products and services.
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9. Data processing