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back 5 December’ 2022

Особенности экономики Великобритании. Часть 1

Analytical review Article

5 December’ 2022

Особенности экономики Великобритании стали центральной темой “Мовчания” на прошлой неделе. Делимся заметками основателя Movchan’s Group Андрея Мовчана.

Часть 1

Великобритания является шестой экономикой мира по ВВП и составляет $3,2 трлн. При пересчете ВВП на человека по ППС все не так радужно, он составляет $55 тыс, и по этому показателю Великобритания занимает 28 место в мире, находясь рядом с Францией, Южной Кореей и Мальтой. Для сравнения, Швеция – это $62 000, США – $75 000, Швейцария $84 000, Ирландия $125 000; Россия $30 000.

Великобритания – страна небогатых людей. Богатые люди, в основном, приезжие. При этом доход отсечения 10% самых богатых домохозяйств – 72 000 фунтов в год. Доход отсечения 10% самых бедных домохозяйств – 10 000 фунтов в год. Медианная зарплата 30 000 фунтов в год (2 500 000 руб в год; 210 000 руб в мес).

10% сотрудников получают более 60 000 фунтов в год, топ 1% – в среднем 180 000 в год. С точки зрения доходов это обычная страна. Британский лоск связан с тем, что в Великобританию приезжают состоятельные люди.

Средняя стоимость аренды жилья – около 1 000 фунтов в месяц.

Коэффициент Gini (показатель неравномерного распределения богатства) с 1991 года держится в районе 35% (ранее был ближе к 25% и вырос в 80е годы). 35% у Нигерии, Узбекистана, Эфиопии, Латвии, Вьетнама, Литвы, Люксембурга. 25% – Чехия. Зимбабве – 50%, Мексика 45%, США – 41%, Туркменистан – 40%, Швейцария – 33%, Франция – 32%, Ирландия 31%, Норвегия 27%. Россия 36%.

Налоговая нагрузка составляет 33% ВВП, как у Кипра, Испании, Молдавии, Эстонии. У Франции – 46%, Италии – 42%, Норвегии – 38%; Израиля – 32%, Австралии – 27%, Турции – 25%, России – 24%, Ирландии – 22%, Вьетнама – 18%, Китая – 17%, Казахстана – 16%, ОАЭ 9%, Кувейта –1.5%.

Максимальная ставка подоходного налога 45% (со 125 000 фунтов в год), налог на прирост капитала 28%. До 12 000 фунтов в год (850 000 рублей) налог 0%.

Соцвзносы начинаются с уровня 12 500 фунтов в год (13.5%) и до уровня 50 000 фунтов в год. Свыше этого ставка 3.25%. Работодатель платит 15.5% с уровня выше 9 100 фунтов в год. Если ваш заработок меньше 6 300 фунтов в год – вы ничего не платите, но и не получаете страховой пенсии.

Экспорт: товары составляют 12% ВВП ($370 млрд в 2019), а услуг 10% ВВП ($329 млрд в 2019). Импорт: товары на 17% ВВП ($542 млрд), а услуг на 7.5% ВВП ($246 млрд). Разница составляет $89 млрд, то есть 2.5% ВВП в 2019 году. В 2022 году она стремится к 5% ВВП.

Британский экспорт на 65% идет в ЕC; в США – 14%; в Китай – 5%. Бензина и виски экспортируется по 2% от общего объема. Автомобили – 7,5%, машиностроение – 40%, фарма и химия еще 20%. Агропродукция – 30 млрд.

Основная статья импорта в 2020 году – золото (14% на $84 млрд). Всего драгоценных металлов импортируется на более чем $100 млрд. За 2 года показатель вырос в 3 раза.

Британия является центром мировой торговли физическим золотом, занимая 70% рынка. Золото ввозится и хранится в банках Британии. Во время Covid объем ввоза золота резко вырос. Классическая ошибка статистики – относить результаты экспорта и импорта золота к «индустрии».

Агропродукции закупается на $70 млрд.

Счет текущих операций остается отрицательным с 1998 года. В 2021 году сальдо составило минус 45 млрд, но в 2022 увеличится (до минус 44 млрд за 1 квартал, минус 33 млрд за 2 квартал). Пика в минус 110 млрд страна достигала в 2016 году.

Дефицит покрывается за счет международных заимствований. Международная инвестиционная позиция Британии равна минус 688 млрд фунтов, в основном, за счет портфельных инвестиций (большая часть – долг, всего минус 800 млрд) и прямых инвестиций ( минус 370 млрд).

Экономика Великобритании потеряла 11% в 2020 году, и до сих пор не восстановилась полностью после Covid, прибавив в 2021 году 7,5%. Она не так сильна, как многие думают.

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