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back 21 November’ 2022

Крах криптобиржи FTX: “Мовчание” на Живом Гвозде от 21.11 2022

Analytical review Video
21 November’ 2022
“Крупнейшие инвестиционные фонды не проводили нормального аудита FTX, проявляя халатность. Их интересовало увеличение объема своих фондов, а не то, будут ли средства клиентов надежно защищены. Кроме того, есть еще один важный и циничный фактор – FTX был спонсором демократической партии США и президента Джо Байдена”.
“Вся компания была на различных стимуляторах. В этот коктейль входило лекарство от болезни Паркинсона. Оно стимулирует выработку дофамина и провоцирует снижение ощущения опасности. Сам глава FTX Сэм Бэнкман-Фрид проявлял свойства игромании”.
“Когда биржа перестала рассчитывать первые сделки, стремительно было выведено $5 млрд, скорее всего, инсайдерами. После полной остановки биржи потери клиентов и кредиторов составили $9 млрд долларов; потери венчурных фондов – еще $2 млрд; потери владельцев FTT – еще $3 млрд; позже хакеры украли еще $600 млн”.
Cмотрите подробный рассказ основателя Movchan’s Group Андрея Мовчана о стремительном взлете FTX и не менее сокрушительном падении в авторской передаче “Мовчание” здесь
Также по просьбе наших подписчиков выкладываем конспект Андрея:
Крах криптобиржи FTX
Биржа FTX была создана в 2019 году Сэмом Банкманом-Фридом. Сэм родился в 1992 году, родители – юристы в Стэнфорде. Закончил MIT, талантливый математик.
До 2017 года нигде не работал (если не считать работы в благотворительности).
В 2017 основал криптоарбитражный фонд.
В 2019 году создал биржу для торговли деривативами на криптовалюты с помощью Binance.
В этом же году биржа выпустила токен FTT, по сути, корпоративную валюту.
Схема работы FTT
Минимум 1/3 комиссий, полученных биржей, используется на обратную покупку FTT. Токен стал чем-то вроде привилегированных акций биржи. Его стоимость должна была расти пропорционально росту прибыли биржи.
FTT можно использовать как залог для операций с фьючерсами на другие криптовалюты по рыночной оценке FTT.
Владельцы FTT получают дисконт на комиссии биржи.
Волатильность FTT
Всего в обращении было примерно 330 млн FTT. Валюта стартовала в 2019 году с цены около $1,7. Цена падала до $1,2 за токен, обороты середины 2019 года – около 2 млн токенов в день (около $4 млн в день, рынка на эту валюту практически нет).
После открытия биржи цена монеты растет до $60, но оборот падает ниже $2 млн токенов в день, хотя большого рынка по-прежнему нет. Регулятор должен был задаться вопросом, что происходит? Но регулятора нет.
В сентябре 2021 года оборот на 3 недели повышается до 50 млн токенов в день, но уже в октябре он составляет 5 млн, в марте 2022 года – опять те же 2 млн токенов в день при цене $30. В начале ноября цена опускается до $25. Токен оказывается очень волатильным активом.
Что было в сентябре 2021 года
Вокруг этого периода было три раунда привлечения капитала, по оценкам, от $18 до $32 млрд. Комиссионная выручка оценивается очень по-разному: от $600 млн до $10 млрд долларов. Такой разброс косвенно говорит о закрытости системы.
Всего было привлечено около $2 млрд. Инвесторы – Temasek, Sequoia, Softbank и др.
Крупнейшие инвестиционные фонды не проводили нормального аудита FTX, проявляя халатность. Их интересовало увеличение объема своих фондов, а не то, будут ли средства клиентов надежно защищены.
Но главное не это – Фрид стал крупнейшим спонсором демократической партии США и Джо Байдена, потратив более $45 млн.
Что было внутри
Внутри компании царил реальный бардак. Как оказалось, система была дезорганизована, отсутствовали кросс-контроли, не было специалистов в юридической инфраструктуре.
Фрид постоянно принимал «композицию из стимуляторов» и требовал от подчиненных того же. Одним из стимуляторов было лекарство от болезни Паркинсона, которое в качестве побочного эффекта сильно снижает осторожность и провоцирует на рискованные действия. Фрид проявлял свойства игромании. Известно, что даже во время питча с инвестором он мог параллельно играть в игру на телефоне.
Куда пошли деньги инвесторов и клиентов
$200 млн на недвижимость на Багамах
$300 млн лично Фриду на счета;
$1.5 млрд – рекламные кампании, эксцентричные покупки, спонсорство Formula 1 итд.
$2 млрд на выкуп доли Binance, которая вложила ранее в FTX $100 млн;
$10 млрд было переведено в личный хедж-фонд Фрида Alameda Research, который потерял все эти деньги (всего $15 млрд) на спекуляциях другими криптовалютами и акциями с большим плечом. Когда в начале 2022 года кредиторы фонда стали требовать возвратов, он осуществлялся за счет средств клиентов биржи; Аламеда начинала как маркет мейкер и арбитражер, но быстро потеряла способность зарабатывать и перешла к длинным позициям с большим плечом.
По мере того, как возникали проблемы, кредиторы требовали погашений, но залоги были выражены в FTT, который падал в цене и Alameda просто выкупала кредиторов целиком, чтобы не расплачиваться по кредиту – это выдавалось за удачные сделки по «дистресс покупке», на это шли деньги клиентов биржи. Сделки делались по очень высоким ценам: $1,5 млрд за выкуп Voyager/BlockFI.
$6 млрд – выкуп токенов FTT для поддержания цены и ликвидности (остаток стоимости на сегодня около $300 млн); перед банкротством Alameda держала FTT на $8 млрд, а остальные участники рынка – на $3 млрд;
$5.5 млрд – вложения в неликвидные токены, в основном созданные тоже Фридом.
$3 млрд – в нераскрываемые «неликвидные вложения». Наверняка это частично вложения в крупные венчурные фонды в обмен на существенно большие вложения в FTX, частично – вывод средств Фридом.
$0.5 млрд – акции RobinHood, купленные примерно на 20% дороже нынешней цены.
FTX «жила» с дыркой в почти $9 млрд.
Конец истории
Binance объявил о продаже всех своих токенов FTT на сумму $500 млн. Это обрушило цену, что вызвало массовый маржин колл для тех, кто использовал токен для залога, что вызвало по цепочке продажу залога в виде FTT.
С биржи пошел вывод средств, выведено было $5 млрд (скорее всего, Binance и инсайдерами). Вскоре вывод средств был остановлен. Потери клиентов и кредиторов составили $9 млрд долларов; потери венчурных фондов – еще $2 млрд; потери владельцев FTT – еще $3 млрд; позже хакеры украли еще $600 млн.
Последствия
Не понятно, чем закончится эта история. Биржа была зарегистрирована на Карибских островах, в США было только отделение. Регулирования, на самом деле, нет ни там, ни там. С точки зрения закона Фрид и FTX как бы ничего не нарушили – можно попробовать их судить за мошенничество, но это будет сложный процесс.
Судя по всему, вся схема имеет стороннего автора, возможно, это Чанпен Джао, глава Binance. Так или иначе он заработал $1.9 млрд только на акциях FTX и, возможно, достаточно много на росте стоимости FTT.
Мораль
Проблемы криптомира те же, что финансового, но в криптомире нет регулирования, которое могло бы их предотвращать.
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