Macroeconomic overview. January 2024
Movchan's Group
Mar 1, 2024The economy of 2024 is likely to be determined by two major macro trends. The victory over inflation, proclaimed by many analysts at the end of 2023, may not be entirely final. In any case, in January 2024, the main drivers of inflation — an overheated labor market and rising wages — have reasserted themselves. The second trend is the dominance of politics over the economy. 2024 is an election year in many economies around the world, from the USA and Russia to Mexico and South Africa. And electoral dynamics are already having a significant impact on the economy, and this influence will only increase further. For example, the migration crisis in the USA is already causing a lot of political debate, although the impact of migration on the American economy is likely positive.
• The labor market in the USA stubbornly refuses to cool down, creating prerequisites for maintaining the Fed's rate at a high level at least until mid-2024.
• Europe has no hope of finding a new growth driver in the near future.
The full version of our report can be downloaded via the link.
